Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Female Protagonist

Of 403 developers who shipped a Female-Led Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 483 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1561 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 483 games are announced against 218 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 483 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 403
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $14k → $6.7k → $6.5k → $16k → $10k → $5.4k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 403
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $8.3k (exactly $8,273)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $60,665)
Top 5% $741k (exactly $741,415)
Developers, 2 yr 403
Released games 1,669
Announced 483
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 63,776 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $8.3k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 300 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 483 games are announced against 218 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony older $39.99 21,978 82% 659k $26M (exactly $26,367,007) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Summer Memories older $19.99 24,113 92% 723k $14M (exactly $14,460,566) Dojin Otome
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
NEKOPARA Vol. 1 older $9.99 23,405 95% 702k $7.0M (exactly $7,014,478) NEKO WORKs
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.