Do I ship it?

GamesCharacter CustomizationCharacter Customization + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization Dating Sim?

Character Customization + Dating Sim

Of 130 developers who shipped a Character Customization Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2958 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 204 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 204 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Character Customization + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $18k → $3.0k → $22k → $10k → $11k → $19k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Character Customization + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Median $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 25% $118k (exactly $117,541)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 424
Announced 204
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Character Customization, Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Immersive Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 58% positive over 261,452 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Character Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  2. + Real-TimeStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  3. + Music-Based Procedural GenerationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  4. + TransportationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  5. + MinigamesFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.2k · 13 announced
  7. + BikesFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  8. + IdlerFair210 devs · median $1.2k · 286 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair146 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  10. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $836 · 32 announced
  11. + Precision PlatformerFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  12. + TypingFair27 devs · median $539 · 38 announced

All 250 pairs on the Character Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition older $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE $14.99 4,131 89% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) IT'S A TRAP
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Quickie: A Love Hotel Story $19.99 2,081 95% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,976) Oppai Games
The Wife Next Door $16.99 1,951 89% 59k $994k (exactly $994,425) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.