Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy game?

Dark Fantasy

Of 2,096 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,449 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1028 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 4,449 games are announced against 1,347 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 4,449 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,096
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,096
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,070)
Top 5% $645k (exactly $645,495)
Developers, 2 yr 2,096
Released games 5,556
Announced 4,449
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 572,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 993 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,449 games are announced against 1,347 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dark Fantasy

142 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Idler + Dark Fantasy Fair $2.9k 83 devs
  2. Local Co-Op + Dark Fantasy Fair $2.7k 40 devs
  3. 6DOF + Dark Fantasy Fair $1.8k 12 devs
  4. Collectathon + Dark Fantasy Fair $1.2k 45 devs
  5. Match 3 + Dark Fantasy Fair $539 14 devs
  6. Fighting + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $56k 11 devs
  7. City Builder + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $54k 20 devs
  8. Colony Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $33k 17 devs
  9. MMORPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $25k 8 devs
  10. Turn-Based + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $15k 51 devs
  11. Rhythm + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $14k 11 devs
  12. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $10k 10 devs
  13. Metroidvania + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $9.6k 106 devs
  14. Souls-like + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $8.5k 249 devs
  15. Character Action Game + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.9k 8 devs
  16. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.7k 66 devs
  17. Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.6k 78 devs
  18. Crafting + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.5k 98 devs
  19. Automation + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.5k 30 devs
  20. Spectacle fighter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.5k 34 devs
  21. Loot + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.4k 142 devs
  22. Time Management + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.7k 42 devs
  23. Economy + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.7k 32 devs
  24. Sandbox + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.5k 54 devs
  25. Point & Click + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.5k 102 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.5k 72 devs
  27. Open World + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.1k 163 devs
  28. Building + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.1k 62 devs
  29. Base Building + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.8k 72 devs
  30. Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.8k 68 devs
  31. Twin Stick Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.7k 33 devs
  32. Boomer Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.5k 46 devs
  33. Management + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.3k 76 devs
  34. JRPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.8k 117 devs
  35. Hack and Slash + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.6k 368 devs
  36. Quick-Time Events + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.6k 14 devs
  37. 4 Player Local + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.6k 9 devs
  38. Otome + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.6k 17 devs
  39. Hex Grid + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 15 devs
  40. Co-op + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 98 devs
  41. Online Co-Op + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 97 devs
  42. Parkour + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 24 devs
  43. Action RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 451 devs
  44. CRPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.3k 70 devs
  45. Inventory Management + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.3k 79 devs
  46. Simulation + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.2k 205 devs
  47. Party-Based RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.0k 125 devs
  48. Character Customization + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.0k 193 devs
  49. Swordplay + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.0k 71 devs
  50. Creature Collector + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 36 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
The First Berserker: Khazan $59.99 21,049 85% 631k $38M (exactly $37,881,885) Neople
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.