Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Fighting game?

Fighting + Dark Fantasy

Only 11 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLEACH Rebirth of Souls, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $56k, ×38 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $24k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5804 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 23 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $268k → $3.3k
Outcomes for Fighting + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Median $56k (exactly $56,372)
Top 25% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Top 5% $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 55
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 8,628 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $24k, median $56k, 1 in 4 over $620k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $24k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  5. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  7. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  8. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Thymesia older $24.99 8,262 82% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,194,021) OverBorder Studio
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Enotria: The Last Song older $39.99 2,184 69% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,620,145) Jyamma Games
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Werewolf: The Apocalypse - Earthblood older $29.99 1,463 69% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,261) Cyanide Studio
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
Moonscars older $19.99 1,214 82% 36k $728k (exactly $728,036) Black Mermaid
The Shore older $11.99 1,763 70% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) Ares Dragonis
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
DaemonBride:ADDITIONAL GAIN $19.99 94 82% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) Team Arcana, Kizawaya
WORLD HEROES PERFECT $19.99 50 86% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Code Mystics
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
Unbound Eternity $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Yunicorn Studio
Pure Instinct Katana $24.99 4 75% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Pure Instinct Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.