Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy

Of 68 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5240 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 97 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 97 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $744k → $29k → $315k → $25k → $1.5M → $20k → $3.1k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,967)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 94
Announced 97
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 89,641 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M The Spell Brigade 2026 · $5.7M Death Must Die 2023 · EA · $4.4M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Boneraiser Minions older $4.99 4,967 96% 149k $744k (exactly $743,560) caiys
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.