Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Souls-like?

Souls-like + Dark Fantasy

Of 249 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 558 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×5.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×5031 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 558 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 558 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 249
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $3.6k → $5.4k → $29k → $3.9k → $6.5k → $6.5k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 249
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $150k (exactly $150,200)
Top 5% $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144)
Developers, 2 yr 249
Released games 645
Announced 558
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Difficult, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 507,330 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $7.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 119 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 558 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED older $39.99 100,222 92% 3.0M $120M (exactly $120,236,333) QLOC, FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
The First Berserker: Khazan $59.99 21,049 85% 631k $38M (exactly $37,881,885) Neople
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.