Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Dark Fantasy

Only 9 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INTO EVIL, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $47k, ×76 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $47,668)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 26
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
4 Player Local
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 675 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tallowmere 2: Curse of the Kittens older $9.99 318 80% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,305) Chris McFarland
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
Bloody Zombies older $14.99 81 58% 2.4k $36k (exactly $36,426) Paw Print Games Ltd.
Bounty Battle older $19.99 39 20% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Dark Screen Games
Forest of Deceit $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Ghost Camp
Otherlights · EA $19.99 15 100% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Soleil Artificiel
Arcade Sundown older $8.99 31 100% 930 $8.4k (exactly $8,361) The Fully Arcade
Jrago II Guardians of Eden older $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Jrago Studios
Skulltide $12.99 18 66% 540 $7.0k (exactly $7,015) The Planar Danse
Crypt Crawler $7.99 15 100% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Wild Domain
Toy Scrappers $4.99 18 77% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) LoudScream
DoomBreaker · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) wildlogicgames
Ultimate Mythic Ski Jumping League $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Eric Behme, Oliver Müller
Slime Tales $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BK202

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.