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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Party-Based RPG?
Party-Based RPG + Dark Fantasy
Of 125 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 272 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 272 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $3,045) |
| Top 25% | $49k (exactly $48,851) |
| Top 5% | $837k (exactly $837,415) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 125 |
| Released games | 292 |
| Announced | 272 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Party-Based RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 244,547 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 272 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Board GameFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + AutomationPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + IncrementalPoor odds
Comparable games
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M 
Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M 
FINAL FANTASY XVI 2024 · $36M 
Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M 
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition 2010 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
| | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
| | Darkest Dungeon® II | older | $39.99 | 24,249 74% | 727k | $29M (exactly $29,091,525) | Red Hook Studios |
| | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | Pillars of Eternity | older | $29.99 | 16,990 87% | 510k | $15M (exactly $15,285,903) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Gloomhaven | older | $34.99 | 13,628 82% | 409k | $14M (exactly $14,305,312) | Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive |
 | Tyranny | older | $29.99 | 9,877 87% | 296k | $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition | $39.99 | 5,855 86% | 176k | $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. | |
 | Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 6,953 81% | 209k | $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) | BioWare |
 | Aethermancer | · EA | $25.99 | 2,585 91% | 78k | $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) | moi rai games |
 | Duel Corp. | · EA | $24.99 | 1,251 71% | 38k | $938k (exactly $937,875) | Dreameffect Entertainment |
 | Dungeon Settlers | · EA | $24.99 | 1,117 79% | 34k | $837k (exactly $837,415) | CanOpener |
 | Banquet for Fools | $19.99 | 936 89% | 28k | $561k (exactly $561,319) | Hannah and Joseph Games | |
 | New Arc Line | · EA | $24.99 | 687 68% | 21k | $515k (exactly $515,044) | Dreamate |
 | Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising | $9.99 | 1,160 77% | 35k | $348k (exactly $347,652) | Small Mill, Small Mill |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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