Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy

Of 66 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 139 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×437 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 139 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 139 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $1.0M → $55k → $40k → $7.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $3.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,712)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $71,349)
Top 5% $275k (exactly $274,707)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 109
Announced 139
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 4 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 139 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
Knock on the Coffin Lid older $24.99 2,727 82% 82k $2.0M (exactly $2,044,432) RedBoon
Ring of Pain older $19.99 3,256 91% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,952,623) Simon Boxer, Twice Different
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
Banners of Ruin older $19.99 2,298 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,378,111) MonteBearo
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Pluto $17.99 509 93% 15k $275k (exactly $274,707) Siege Wizard Interactive
Throne of Bone $16.99 327 85% 9.8k $167k (exactly $166,672) Windmill Slam
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Goblin Sushi · EA $9.99 404 89% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Old Cake Factory
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
Godslayer Arena · EA $14.99 257 76% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Hippo Rider Games
BLOODLETTER $15.49 229 79% 6.9k $106k (exactly $106,416) ALDAMAMI GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.