Games › Open World › Open World + Dark Fantasy
Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Open World game?
Open World + Dark Fantasy
Of 163 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 410 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7279 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 410 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $838 (exactly $838) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) |
| Top 25% | $111k (exactly $111,076) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,903,742) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 163 |
| Released games | 473 |
| Announced | 410 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 179,803 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 410 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Hollow Knight | older | $14.99 | 502,960 96% | 15M | $226M (exactly $226,181,112) | Team Cherry |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
 | V Rising | older | $34.99 | 110,505 89% | 3.3M | $116M (exactly $115,997,098) | Stunlock Studios |
 | No Rest for the Wicked | · EA older | $39.99 | 66,102 80% | 2.0M | $79M (exactly $79,302,569) | Moon Studios GmbH |
 | WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers | $49.99 | 44,865 58% | 1.3M | $67M (exactly $67,284,040) | Leenzee | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | CODE VEIN II | $69.99 | 5,193 66% | 156k | $11M (exactly $10,903,742) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. | |
 | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.