Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Dark Fantasy

Of 34 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×15809 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 66 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 66 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $8.7k → $1.2k → $57k → $78k → $6.5k → $1.6k (still earning) → $236k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,458)
Top 25% $115k (exactly $115,123)
Top 5% $24M (exactly $23,682,516)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 89
Announced 66
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Hack and Slash
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 40,699 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 5 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition older $29.99 7,998 80% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,195,801) MercurySteam, Climax Studios
STRANGER OF PARADISE FINAL FANTASY ORIGIN older $39.99 3,735 82% 112k $4.5M (exactly $4,480,880) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight older $9.99 10,502 93% 315k $3.1M (exactly $3,147,449) Bombservice
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
NanoApostle older $19.99 1,184 95% 36k $710k (exactly $710,045) 18Light Game Ltd.
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Divinum $14.99 525 85% 16k $236k (exactly $236,092) Sigil Games
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.