Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Otome?

Otome + Dark Fantasy

Only 17 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Silent Kingdom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×249 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $18k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,568)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,978)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $156,513)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 49
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Visual Novel, Adventure
Price point
$12.00 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.00.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,038 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk older $29.99 600 84% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) IDEA FACTORY
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
EPHEMERAL -FANTASY ON DARK- older $39.99 173 87% 5.2k $208k (exactly $207,548) dramatic create
OBSCURA · EA older $14.99 453 99% 14k $204k (exactly $203,714) Rotten Raccoons
Demonheart: Hunters older $19.99 283 83% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Rolling Crown
The Silent Kingdom · EA $17.99 290 99% 8.7k $157k (exactly $156,513) Lucky Cat
Mask of the Rose older $19.99 260 76% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Failbetter Games
Chronicles of Taldun: The Remainder older $27.99 139 94% 4.2k $117k (exactly $116,718) Square Weasel Studio
When The Night Comes older $12.99 289 92% 8.7k $113k (exactly $112,623) Lunaris Games
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
Sigh of the Abyss $17.99 164 96% 4.9k $89k (exactly $88,511) Rascal Devworks
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown
Legends of Savvarah: Children of the Sun $7.99 75 92% 2.3k $18k (exactly $17,978) ST Sinovar
Legends of Savvarah: Flowers and Scorpions $5.99 94 95% 2.8k $17k (exactly $16,892) ST Sinovar
Nusantara: Bermuda $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) SweetChiel
Eternal Glory · EA $16.99 11 100% 330 $5.6k (exactly $5,607) Nocturn
Keepers of Astraela $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) HMoon Publishing, Wrenna Stone
Darling, Darling... Dead? $12.00 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,680) Chthonic Chrome Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.