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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Otome?
Otome + Dark Fantasy
Only 17 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Silent Kingdom, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×249 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,568) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,978) |
| Top 5% | $157k (exactly $156,513) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 49 |
| Announced | 42 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Otome
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Visual Novel, Adventure
- Price point
- $12.00 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.00.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,038 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + IncrementalStrong odds
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Interactive FictionPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
- + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + Word GamePoor odds
- + MysteryPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk | older | $29.99 | 600 84% | 18k | $540k (exactly $539,820) | IDEA FACTORY |
| | Demonheart | older | $19.99 | 714 89% | 21k | $428k (exactly $428,186) | Rolling Crown |
| | EPHEMERAL -FANTASY ON DARK- | older | $39.99 | 173 87% | 5.2k | $208k (exactly $207,548) | dramatic create |
| | OBSCURA | · EA older | $14.99 | 453 99% | 14k | $204k (exactly $203,714) | Rotten Raccoons |
| | Demonheart: Hunters | older | $19.99 | 283 83% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Rolling Crown |
| | The Silent Kingdom | · EA | $17.99 | 290 99% | 8.7k | $157k (exactly $156,513) | Lucky Cat |
| | Mask of the Rose | older | $19.99 | 260 76% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Failbetter Games |
| | Chronicles of Taldun: The Remainder | older | $27.99 | 139 94% | 4.2k | $117k (exactly $116,718) | Square Weasel Studio |
| | When The Night Comes | older | $12.99 | 289 92% | 8.7k | $113k (exactly $112,623) | Lunaris Games |
| | Mythic Love: Iberian Legends | $12.99 | 251 92% | 7.5k | $98k (exactly $97,815) | Platonic Games | |
| | Sigh of the Abyss | $17.99 | 164 96% | 4.9k | $89k (exactly $88,511) | Rascal Devworks | |
| | Demonheart: The Cursed Trial | $24.99 | 115 90% | 3.5k | $86k (exactly $86,216) | Rolling Crown | |
| | Legends of Savvarah: Children of the Sun | $7.99 | 75 92% | 2.3k | $18k (exactly $17,978) | ST Sinovar | |
| | Legends of Savvarah: Flowers and Scorpions | $5.99 | 94 95% | 2.8k | $17k (exactly $16,892) | ST Sinovar | |
| | Nusantara: Bermuda | $19.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $7.8k (exactly $7,796) | SweetChiel | |
| | Eternal Glory | · EA | $16.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $5.6k (exactly $5,607) | Nocturn |
| | Keepers of Astraela | $14.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | HMoon Publishing, Wrenna Stone | |
| | Darling, Darling... Dead? | $12.00 | 13 100% | 390 | $4.7k (exactly $4,680) | Chthonic Chrome Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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