Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Dark Fantasy

Of 97 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 250 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×4537 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 250 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 250 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $1.0M → $95k → $3.1k → $33k → $2.1k → $8.7k (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $168k (exactly $167,738)
Top 5% $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 213
Announced 250
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 245,697 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 250 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.