Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Crafting game?

Crafting + Dark Fantasy

Of 98 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 302 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2542 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 302 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 302 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 98
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $25k → $6.0k → $11k → $33k → $8.5k → $5.7k (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 98
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,382)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660)
Developers, 2 yr 98
Released games 242
Announced 302
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 247,845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 302 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness older $59.99 2,650 79% 80k $4.8M (exactly $4,769,205) Chime Corporation
Reign Of Kings older $9.99 11,838 56% 355k $3.5M (exactly $3,547,849) Code}{atch
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
DAIMON BLADES · EA $19.90 707 69% 21k $422k (exactly $422,079) StreumOn Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
The Black Grimoire: Cursebreaker $14.99 880 83% 26k $396k (exactly $395,736) Olipa Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.