Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Dark Fantasy

Of 71 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 193 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6665 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 193 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 193 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $1.9k → $3.3M → $8.6k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $1.0k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $958 (exactly $958)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 182
Announced 193
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Souls-like
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 34,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 193 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga older $49.99 9,381 86% 281k $14M (exactly $14,068,686) Ninja Theory
Tails of Iron older $24.99 13,116 87% 393k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) Odd Bug Studio
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Legendary Tales older $39.99 2,711 76% 81k $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) Urban Wolf Games Inc.
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic older $9.99 9,331 89% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) Arkane Studios
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.