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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Dark Fantasy
Of 71 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 193 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6665 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 193 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $958 (exactly $958) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $74k (exactly $74,200) |
| Top 5% | $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 71 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 193 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Souls-like
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 34,524 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 193 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga | older | $49.99 | 9,381 86% | 281k | $14M (exactly $14,068,686) | Ninja Theory |
| | Tails of Iron | older | $24.99 | 13,116 87% | 393k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) | Odd Bug Studio |
| | BLEACH Rebirth of Souls | $59.99 | 4,831 68% | 145k | $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) | TAMSOFT CORPORATION | |
| | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. | |
| | Mortal Sin | $24.99 | 5,583 94% | 167k | $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) | Nikola Todorovic | |
| | Legendary Tales | older | $39.99 | 2,711 76% | 81k | $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) | Urban Wolf Games Inc. |
| | Hellsplit: Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,735 83% | 112k | $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) | Deep Type Games |
| | Dark Messiah of Might & Magic | older | $9.99 | 9,331 89% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) | Arkane Studios |
| | Soulstice | older | $39.99 | 1,845 76% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) | Reply Game Studios |
| | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
| | Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter | $24.99 | 1,851 79% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) | Odd Bug Studio | |
| | Labyrinth Of The Demon King | $19.99 | 2,116 92% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) | J. R. Hudepohl | |
| | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
| | Dungeons of Blood and Dream | $18.99 | 1,173 93% | 35k | $668k (exactly $668,258) | Lori Vornoy | |
| | Bloodthief | $19.99 | 1,017 95% | 31k | $610k (exactly $609,895) | Blargis |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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