Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Loot game?

Loot + Dark Fantasy

Of 142 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 313 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2673 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 313 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 313 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $431k → $5.4k → $20k → $1.8k → $6.0k → $16k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,104)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 272
Announced 313
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Hack and Slash
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 229,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 313 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Wolcen: Lords of Mayhem older $19.99 61,837 55% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,083,649) WOLCEN Studio
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software
Lucky Tower Ultimate $14.99 2,281 94% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) Studio Seufz
GOD FORSAKEN $13.99 1,728 67% 52k $725k (exactly $725,242) insight studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.