Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Idler?

Idler + Dark Fantasy

Of 83 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 128 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 380% on the market, 128 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $6.9k → $6.9k → $3.6k → $1.3k → $7.2k → $1.0k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,535)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,929)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 147
Announced 128
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 205% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 12,921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  11. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  12. + ModernFair45 devs · median $2.7k · 41 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
Stuck In Time older $7.99 1,018 84% 31k $244k (exactly $244,015) Housemade Inc.
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Journey to Incrementalia $4.99 894 86% 27k $134k (exactly $133,832) Adam Travers
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
Orc Incremental $7.99 444 75% 13k $106k (exactly $106,427) Nice Ride
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.