Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Dark Fantasy

Of 106 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1164 the market median. Revenue is up 165% on the market; 322 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 165% on the market, 322 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $3.9k → $41k → $27k → $9.2k → $3.5k → $22k (still earning) → $39k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,076)
Top 5% $731k (exactly $731,034)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 302
Announced 322
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Souls-like
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 39,904 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Verho - Curse of Faces $19.99 1,219 91% 37k $731k (exactly $731,034) Kasur Games
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.