Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Dark Fantasy

Of 45 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is flat on the market; 68 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 68 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $60 → $5.1k → $3.9k → $1.3k → $2.4k → $150 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $56,372)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 105
Announced 68
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.66 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.66 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,183 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Disneyland Adventures older $19.99 664 91% 20k $398k (exactly $398,201) Frontier Developments, Asobo Studio
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
[DE:]Fanastasis older $19.99 177 96% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Mosamosa
ENCHAIN · EA $19.99 94 96% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) mattlawrdev
Cursed Crew · EA older $20.00 70 80% 2.1k $42k (exactly $42,000) Cracklewock Games
Dark Succubus $6.99 171 77% 5.1k $36k (exactly $35,859) ZC Game
The Sealed Ampoule older $19.99 56 80% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) CAVYHOUSE
Minsgon Simulator $9.99 112 78% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Vokcen
Lunar Axe older $7.99 136 88% 4.1k $33k (exactly $32,599) Ops Game Studio
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
Deadhaus Sonata · EA $19.99 38 68% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Apocalypse Studios
Sliding Hero $14.99 42 88% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Silent Chicken
The Little Tomb: The Maholova Club and the Search for a Dead Body $11.99 51 96% 1.5k $18k (exactly $18,345) CAVYHOUSE
Reap and Sow $12.99 30 80% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) MrFishess, Jd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.