Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting game?

Crafting

Of 1,972 developers who shipped a Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,634 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2477 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 4,634 games are announced against 1,228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 4,634 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,972
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $3.4k → $4.2k → $3.6k → $4.6k → $3.1k → $3.5k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,972
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,471)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,780)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622)
Developers, 2 yr 1,972
Released games 5,285
Announced 4,634
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,997,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 955 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,634 games are announced against 1,228 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Crafting

201 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Crafting + Creature Collector Poor odds $7.7k 95 devs
  2. Action RTS + Crafting Poor odds $7.2k 19 devs
  3. Crafting + Hex Grid Poor odds $7.2k 12 devs
  4. RPG + Crafting Poor odds $6.7k 624 devs
  5. Crafting + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $6.5k 177 devs
  6. Crafting + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.5k 98 devs
  7. Co-op Campaign + Crafting Poor odds $6.2k 17 devs
  8. Crafting + Steampunk Poor odds $6.0k 14 devs
  9. Crafting + Exploration Poor odds $6.0k 759 devs
  10. Crafting + Cooking Poor odds $6.0k 216 devs
  11. Crafting + Loot Poor odds $6.0k 197 devs
  12. Automation + Crafting Poor odds $6.0k 287 devs
  13. Crafting + Trading Poor odds $5.9k 101 devs
  14. Crafting + Demons Poor odds $5.8k 29 devs
  15. Crafting + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $5.7k 46 devs
  16. Survival + Crafting Poor odds $5.5k 561 devs
  17. Crafting + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.5k 210 devs
  18. Looter Shooter + Crafting Poor odds $5.5k 58 devs
  19. Action RPG + Crafting Poor odds $5.4k 212 devs
  20. Crafting + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $5.4k 83 devs
  21. Class-Based + Crafting Poor odds $5.4k 37 devs
  22. Crafting + Management Poor odds $5.4k 555 devs
  23. Crafting + Medieval Poor odds $5.4k 215 devs
  24. Crafting + Dinosaurs Poor odds $5.4k 17 devs
  25. Crafting + Dragons Poor odds $5.4k 13 devs
  26. Crafting + Resource Management Poor odds $5.4k 530 devs
  27. Crafting + Adventure Poor odds $5.3k 755 devs
  28. Crafting + Transportation Poor odds $5.3k 21 devs
  29. Crafting + Mining Poor odds $5.2k 159 devs
  30. Crafting + Shop Keeper Poor odds $5.1k 125 devs
  31. Third-Person Shooter + Crafting Poor odds $5.1k 65 devs
  32. Destruction + Crafting Poor odds $4.9k 36 devs
  33. Crafting + Collectathon Poor odds $4.8k 113 devs
  34. Crafting + Simulation Poor odds $4.8k 1,008 devs
  35. Crafting + Cats Poor odds $4.8k 40 devs
  36. Action + Crafting Poor odds $4.8k 630 devs
  37. Hunting + Crafting Poor odds $4.8k 50 devs
  38. Crafting + Military Poor odds $4.8k 27 devs
  39. Crafting + Horror Poor odds $4.6k 123 devs
  40. Crafting + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 99 devs
  41. Crafting + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.5k 209 devs
  42. Crafting + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $4.4k 70 devs
  43. Agriculture + Crafting Poor odds $4.4k 121 devs
  44. Crafting + Fantasy Poor odds $4.3k 442 devs
  45. Crafting + Roguelite Poor odds $4.3k 188 devs
  46. City Builder + Crafting Poor odds $4.3k 144 devs
  47. Crafting + Magic Poor odds $4.3k 183 devs
  48. Crafting + War Poor odds $4.3k 36 devs
  49. Survival Horror + Crafting Poor odds $4.2k 103 devs
  50. Stealth + Crafting Poor odds $4.2k 52 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M Terraria 2011 · $372M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.