Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Crafting game?

Crafting + War

Of 36 developers who shipped a War Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×564 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 101 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.8k → $23k → $449 → $4.3k → $14k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $80,320)
Top 5% $354k (exactly $354,423)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 107
Announced 101
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 8,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Homefront®: The Revolution older $19.99 11,393 63% 342k $6.8M (exactly $6,832,382) Dambuster Studios
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Siege Survival: Gloria Victis older $24.99 1,367 79% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,840) Black Eye Games
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Osta $13.99 347 87% 10k $146k (exactly $145,636) Cup
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
No Man's Home · EA $9.99 268 86% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,320) radrunner
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.