Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Crafting game?

Crafting + Horror

Of 123 developers who shipped a Horror Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 285 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4478 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 285 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 285 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $959 → $151k → $1.5k → $10k → $5.0k → $8.6k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,644)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,673)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 325
Announced 285
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 266,795 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 285 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
Grounded older $39.99 75,755 90% 2.3M $91M (exactly $90,883,274) Obsidian Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.