Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Crafting game?

Crafting + Artificial Intelligence

Of 46 developers who shipped an AI Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 107 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 107 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $958 → $14k → $4.7k → $63k → $1.6k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,154)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 111
Announced 107
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 23,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Beer Factory older $18.99 1,410 40% 42k $803k (exactly $803,277) MyceliumGames
Shawarma Legend older $2.99 7,210 92% 216k $647k (exactly $646,737) Eyad Alshafei
Main Assembly older $19.99 1,004 83% 30k $602k (exactly $602,099) Bad Yolk Games
Wayward Terran Frontier: Zero Falls · EA older $29.99 487 66% 15k $438k (exactly $438,154) Reason Generator Inc.
Chocolate Factory Simulator $19.99 355 72% 11k $213k (exactly $212,893) Games Incubator
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Astroloot · EA $6.99 587 92% 18k $123k (exactly $123,094) Andreas Hager Gaming
WorldNeverland - Daily Life in the Elnea Kingdom - Another Life Adventure $29.99 92 78% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) althi Inc.
Night Rolls Cozy Store $9.99 244 89% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) Polytale Games
Dino Ramen Express · EA $14.99 160 72% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,952) ANTIGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.