Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Management game?

Crafting + Management

Of 555 developers who shipped a Crafting Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,233 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1808 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 1,233 games are announced against 371 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 1,233 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 555
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $22k → $12k → $6.6k → $5.8k → $6.0k → $5.7k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 555
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,842)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Developers, 2 yr 555
Released games 1,228
Announced 1,233
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Management; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 393,474 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 222 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,233 games are announced against 371 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 older $19.99 48,366 91% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,005,090) Red Dot Games
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.