Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Action game?

Action + Crafting

Of 630 developers who shipped a Crafting Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,642 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×7085 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 1,642 games are announced against 367 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 1,642 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 630
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $2.2k → $5.5k → $2.4k → $5.5k → $5.1k → $4.0k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 630
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $72,860)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 630
Released games 1,865
Announced 1,642
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,981,833 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 303 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,642 games are announced against 367 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.