Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Trading game?

Crafting + Trading

Of 101 developers who shipped a Crafting Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 277 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×330 the market median. Revenue is up 255% on the market; 277 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 255% on the market, 277 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9M → $2.7k → $5.7k → $7.7k → $8.1k → $10k → $4.7k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,154)
Top 5% $207k (exactly $207,392)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 265
Announced 277
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 255% on the market, supply 190% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Trading; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 11,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 277 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Cozy Caravan $19.99 1,247 93% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) 5 Lives Studios
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Weed Supermarket Simulator $14.99 420 87% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) DreamWay Games
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.