Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Crafting

Of 65 developers who shipped a Crafting Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 156 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×9314 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 156 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 156 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.8k → $539 → $980 → $5.5k → $3.6k → $6.0k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $51,283)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,953,074)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 160
Announced 156
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Survival
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 778,686 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 156 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Palworld 2026 · $371M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Days Gone 2021 · $99M Deadside 2024 · $26M Cronos: The New Dawn 2025 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Next Day: Survival older $9.99 8,623 62% 259k $2.6M (exactly $2,584,313) SOFF Games
DeadPoly · EA older $9.99 5,384 78% 162k $1.6M (exactly $1,613,585) TFL Games
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.