Games › Crafting › Crafting + Dragons
Should I ship a Dragon Crafting game?
Crafting + Dragons
Only 13 developers shipped a Dragon Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, RuneScape: Dragonwilds, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×7.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×40216 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 70 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 25% | $293k (exactly $292,727) |
| Top 5% | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 58 |
| Announced | 70 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Crafting
- Price point
- $15.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,991 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + SportsFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + IdlerFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + WesternPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
RuneScape: Dragonwilds 2026 · $25M 
WILD HEARTS™ 2023 · $22M 
DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition 2020 · $13M 
Dark and Light 2017 · EA · $5.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
| | WILD HEARTS™ | older | $69.99 | 10,626 48% | 319k | $22M (exactly $22,311,412) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 10,446 92% | 313k | $13M (exactly $12,532,066) | Square Enix |
| | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
 | Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma | $59.99 | 2,947 88% | 88k | $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Citadel: Forged with Fire | older | $14.99 | 5,004 67% | 150k | $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) | Blue Isle Studios |
 | Gedonia | older | $14.99 | 3,659 87% | 110k | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,452) | Kazakov Oleg |
 | CastleMiner Z | older | $5.99 | 7,939 83% | 238k | $1.4M (exactly $1,426,638) | DigitalDNA Games |
 | Wayblazer Dämmerung | $39.99 | 244 65% | 7.3k | $293k (exactly $292,727) | Eushully | |
 | Gargadusa's Tower | $8.99 | 294 90% | 8.8k | $79k (exactly $79,292) | The Math Team | |
 | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES | |
 | 4 Classes, Many Paths | $9.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | J. C. SpringBourne | |
 | スローライフサバイバー／SlowLife Survivor | $6.99 | 5 0% | 150 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | MIZUBLUE GAMES | |
 | AWAKE | $15.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $480 (exactly $480) | REZA ALIDAD | |
 | Inspiring ballads | $12.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | Anufrievs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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