Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Destruction game?

Destruction + Crafting

Of 36 developers who shipped a Crafting Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4449 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 101 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 101 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $59k → $91k → $1.8k → $42k → $4.9k → $36k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,172)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 108
Announced 101
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Exploration, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 23,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Ship Graveyard Simulator 2 older $24.99 3,634 77% 109k $2.7M (exactly $2,724,410) Games Incubator, Hypnotic Ants
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Electrician Simulator older $17.99 4,061 80% 122k $2.2M (exactly $2,191,722) Take IT Studio!
Medieval Engineers older $9.99 5,701 51% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,590) Keen Software House
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Keep Digging $6.99 2,927 79% 88k $614k (exactly $613,792) Wild Dog
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft
DigDigDrill $3.99 607 95% 18k $73k (exactly $72,658) Toorai
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
Voxile · EA $17.99 78 69% 2.3k $42k (exactly $42,097) VoxRay Games, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.