Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting City Builder?

City Builder + Crafting

Of 144 developers who shipped a Crafting City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 319 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1808 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 319 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 319 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 144
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $5.1k → $1.2k → $6.6k → $6.0k → $3.3k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 144
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,697)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Developers, 2 yr 144
Released games 421
Announced 319
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 47,690 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 319 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Smalland: Survive the Wilds older $34.99 8,086 82% 243k $8.5M (exactly $8,487,874) Max Ent Games Ltd
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Techtonica $29.99 3,076 64% 92k $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) Fire Hose Games
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.