Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Turn-Based Strategy?

Crafting + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 70 developers who shipped a Crafting Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×7.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1053 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 127 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 127 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $9.0k → $599 → $123k → $5.8k → $5.4k → $3.6k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,429)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,012)
Top 5% $661k (exactly $661,235)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 176
Announced 127
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 14,685 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WitchSpring R 2023 · $7.2M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M Terminus: Zombie Survivors 2024 · $2.6M NEO Scavenger 2014 · $2.0M Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Dead Age older $14.99 4,407 83% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,828) Silent Dreams
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
挂机手游模拟器 $2.99 1,111 91% 33k $100k (exactly $99,657) 天光
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.