Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Crafting game?

Crafting + Magic

Of 183 developers who shipped a Magic Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 570 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×3118 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 570 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 570 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 183
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $2.1k → $6.0k → $3.6k → $1.3k → $12k → $1.8k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 183
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,580)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020)
Developers, 2 yr 183
Released games 482
Announced 570
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 118,899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 570 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Cat Mail Co. $14.99 6,289 92% 189k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) Maracas Studio
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.