Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Crafting game?

Crafting + Military

Of 27 developers who shipped a Military Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4587 the market median. Revenue is up 2020% on the market; 81 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2020% on the market, 81 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.8k → $15k → $3.5k → $3.1k → $41k (still earning) → $146k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,918)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 80
Announced 81
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2020% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 8,410 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Homefront®: The Revolution older $19.99 11,393 63% 342k $6.8M (exactly $6,832,382) Dambuster Studios
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
KINGDOMS · EA older $9.99 3,994 71% 120k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,002) Oreol
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Osta $13.99 347 87% 10k $146k (exactly $145,636) Cup
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
Astral Lords $12.99 105 80% 3.2k $41k (exactly $40,918) Dark Dimension
Try to survive Today · EA $10.99 77 68% 2.3k $25k (exactly $25,387) VIVA
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
2089 - Space Divided $17.99 28 75% 840 $15k (exactly $15,112) CoastGames GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.