Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Crafting game?

Crafting + Capitalism

Of 99 developers who shipped a Capitalist Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 196 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 196 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 196 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449k → $198k → $21k → $22k → $11k → $21k → $3.3k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,168)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,970)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 193
Announced 196
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 195% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 29,511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 196 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Mad Games Tycoon older $14.99 3,700 91% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,663,890) Eggcode
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
Ale Abbey - Monastery Brewery Tycoon $14.99 1,279 88% 38k $575k (exactly $575,166) Hammer & Ravens
Wayblazer Dämmerung $39.99 244 65% 7.3k $293k (exactly $292,727) Eushully
Banker Simulator $11.99 759 58% 23k $273k (exactly $273,012) Red Axe Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.