Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Shop Keeper?

Crafting + Shop Keeper

Of 125 developers who shipped a Crafting Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 328 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×781 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 328 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 328 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 125
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $56k → $22k → $12k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 125
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $490,243)
Developers, 2 yr 125
Released games 155
Announced 328
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 595% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Shop Keeper; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Life Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 22,088 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 328 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Trash Goblin $19.99 1,574 87% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Winkeltje: The Little Shop older $14.99 1,612 88% 48k $725k (exactly $724,916) Sassybot
Boba Cafe Simulator $15.99 1,192 92% 36k $572k (exactly $571,802) Caikemi
Chop Chop Inc. $12.99 1,258 90% 38k $490k (exactly $490,243) NullRef Entertainment
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Witchy Business $14.99 865 86% 26k $389k (exactly $388,990) Rogue Duck Interactive
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.