Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Hunting game?

Hunting + Crafting

Of 50 developers who shipped a Crafting Hunting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 420% on the market; 116 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 420% on the market, 116 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $11k → $1.4k → $4.8k → $29k → $4.8k → $10k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,730)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 154
Announced 116
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 420% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Open World, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 137,948 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
The Survivalists older $24.99 8,116 76% 243k $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) Team17
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.