Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Crafting game?

Crafting + Demons

Of 29 developers who shipped a Demon Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×672 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 68 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 68 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $1.1k → $1.6k → $11k → $15k → $9.0k → $49k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,576)
Top 5% $422k (exactly $422,079)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 84
Announced 68
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Base Building
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 3,296 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
DAIMON BLADES · EA $19.90 707 69% 21k $422k (exactly $422,079) StreumOn Studio
Wayblazer Dämmerung $39.99 244 65% 7.3k $293k (exactly $292,727) Eushully
Hell Architect older $24.99 356 65% 11k $267k (exactly $266,893) Woodland Games
Rune Knights · EA older $19.99 238 76% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Aeromir
Hauntsville $18.99 189 68% 5.7k $108k (exactly $107,673) Michael Janisch
Lazy Witch's Factory · EA $15.99 204 91% 6.1k $98k (exactly $97,859) MELTCLOCK.Inc
ArkCraft: The Rebirth of the World $10.99 181 71% 5.4k $60k (exactly $59,676) ZD Yazilim
I Hate This Place $29.99 66 63% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Rock Square Thunder
Past Fate · EA $19.99 81 43% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) Icy North Games
Siren's Well $24.99 62 66% 1.9k $46k (exactly $46,481) OneManOnly Studios
Dead Finger Dice $4.99 230 78% 6.9k $34k (exactly $34,431) Rocket Adrift Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.