Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Creature Collector

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Creature Collector?

Crafting + Creature Collector

Of 95 developers who shipped a Crafting Creature Collector in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 227 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2491 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 227 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 227 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Creature Collector
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $5.7k → $600 → $23k → $8.4k → $5.5k → $5.5k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Creature Collector: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $76,540)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,564,617)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 184
Announced 227
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Creature Collector
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Creature Collector; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.00 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 438,954 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 227 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Loddlenaut older $19.99 3,832 98% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,298,050) Moon Lagoon
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Towers of Aghasba · EA $29.99 1,904 67% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Dreamlit inc.
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
Nice Day for Fishing $19.99 2,609 86% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,564,617) FusionPlay
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.