Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Action RPG?

Action RPG + Crafting

Of 212 developers who shipped a Crafting Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 626 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1923 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 626 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 626 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 212
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.5k → $5.4k → $4.1k → $8.6k → $5.0k → $4.8k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 212
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,688)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839)
Developers, 2 yr 212
Released games 619
Announced 626
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 281,287 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 626 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Dead Island 2 older $49.99 23,309 77% 699k $35M (exactly $34,956,507) Dambuster Studios
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.