Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Collectathon game?

Crafting + Collectathon

Of 113 developers who shipped a Crafting Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×491 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 182 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 182 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $1.1k → $14k → $5.2k → $15k → $2.7k → $10k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,982)
Top 5% $308k (exactly $308,323)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 276
Announced 182
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 15,557 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Cozy Grove older $14.99 7,512 89% 225k $3.4M (exactly $3,378,146) Spry Fox
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book DX older $39.99 972 89% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,108) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Lulua ~The Scion of Arland~ older $59.99 528 88% 16k $950k (exactly $950,242) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Farming & Supermarket Simulator $11.99 835 79% 25k $300k (exactly $300,350) EY08 Games
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
Mudborne: Frog Management Sim $7.99 993 96% 30k $238k (exactly $238,022) ellraiser, TNgineers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.