Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Transportation game?

Crafting + Transportation

Of 21 developers who shipped a Crafting Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×8.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4449 the market median. Revenue is up 735% on the market; 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 735% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $718 → $369k → $2.1M (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 25% $429k (exactly $429,464)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 58
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 735% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Transportation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.69 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.69 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 33,979 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Factory Town older $19.99 4,142 90% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,483,957) Erik Asmussen
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
Factory Town 2: Paradise · EA $24.99 151 89% 4.5k $113k (exactly $113,205) Erik Asmussen
CHEMISTS: Dead Zone · EA $15.99 24 62% 720 $12k (exactly $11,513) RPAX GAMING
Service Area Simulator $9.99 26 50% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) ikika Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.