Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Stealth game?

Stealth + Crafting

Of 52 developers who shipped a Crafting Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 160 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×10803 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 160 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 160 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $1.1k → $2.8k → $418k → $387k → $1.2k → $21k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $776 (exactly $776)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $175k (exactly $175,025)
Top 5% $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 136
Announced 160
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 317,055 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 160 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
Chernobylite Complete Edition older $29.99 12,416 81% 372k $11M (exactly $11,170,675) The Farm 51
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.