Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller game?

Thriller

Of 1,495 developers who shipped a Thriller game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,212 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 2,212 games are announced against 876 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 2,212 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,495
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,495
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,436)
Top 5% $196k (exactly $195,502)
Developers, 2 yr 1,495
Released games 3,604
Announced 2,212
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 256,937 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 833 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,212 games are announced against 876 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Thriller

77 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. FMV + Thriller Fair $16k 29 devs
  2. Walking Simulator + Thriller Fair $2.7k 449 devs
  3. Driving + Thriller Fair $2.0k 18 devs
  4. Time Management + Thriller Fair $1.1k 42 devs
  5. Dungeon Crawler + Thriller Fair $716 45 devs
  6. Mystery Dungeon + Thriller Fair $538 34 devs
  7. Arcade + Thriller Fair $479 50 devs
  8. Life Sim + Thriller Poor odds $11k 39 devs
  9. Character Customization + Thriller Poor odds $6.6k 24 devs
  10. Dating Sim + Thriller Poor odds $6.0k 44 devs
  11. Idler + Thriller Poor odds $5.7k 18 devs
  12. Co-op + Thriller Poor odds $4.9k 63 devs
  13. Hack and Slash + Thriller Poor odds $3.8k 22 devs
  14. Online Co-Op + Thriller Poor odds $3.6k 81 devs
  15. Platformer + Thriller Poor odds $3.1k 25 devs
  16. Escape Room + Thriller Poor odds $3.1k 42 devs
  17. RPG + Thriller Poor odds $2.7k 161 devs
  18. Sandbox + Thriller Poor odds $2.7k 15 devs
  19. Visual Novel + Thriller Poor odds $2.4k 222 devs
  20. Interactive Fiction + Thriller Poor odds $2.4k 240 devs
  21. Simulation + Thriller Poor odds $2.3k 383 devs
  22. Investigation + Thriller Poor odds $2.3k 268 devs
  23. Management + Thriller Poor odds $2.3k 19 devs
  24. Resource Management + Thriller Poor odds $2.3k 28 devs
  25. Immersive Sim + Thriller Poor odds $2.2k 197 devs
  26. Exploration + Thriller Poor odds $2.1k 719 devs
  27. Adventure + Thriller Poor odds $1.9k 1,082 devs
  28. Multiple Endings + Thriller Poor odds $1.9k 400 devs
  29. Point & Click + Thriller Poor odds $1.8k 119 devs
  30. Third-Person Shooter + Thriller Poor odds $1.6k 42 devs
  31. Choices Matter + Thriller Poor odds $1.5k 285 devs
  32. Survival Horror + Thriller Poor odds $1.5k 449 devs
  33. Puzzle + Thriller Poor odds $1.3k 537 devs
  34. Shooter + Thriller Poor odds $1.2k 110 devs
  35. Action RPG + Thriller Poor odds $1.2k 36 devs
  36. Logic + Thriller Poor odds $1.1k 92 devs
  37. Puzzle Platformer + Thriller Poor odds $1.1k 52 devs
  38. FPS + Thriller Poor odds $1.1k 188 devs
  39. Action + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 575 devs
  40. Hidden Object + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 237 devs
  41. Stealth + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 207 devs
  42. 3D Platformer + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 77 devs
  43. Physics + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 54 devs
  44. Inventory Management + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 30 devs
  45. Souls-like + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 9 devs
  46. Dynamic Narration + Thriller Poor odds $989 21 devs
  47. Crafting + Thriller Poor odds $987 14 devs
  48. Action-Adventure + Thriller Poor odds $959 430 devs
  49. Choose Your Own Adventure + Thriller Poor odds $958 146 devs
  50. Word Game + Thriller Poor odds $955 26 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M The Last of Us™ Part I 2023 · $117M Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach 2021 · $78M Firewatch 2016 · $56M MiSide 2024 · $55M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
FATAL FRAME II: Crimson Butterfly REMAKE $49.99 2,663 87% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,993,701) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.