Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Thriller

Of 146 developers who shipped a Thriller Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 222 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×696 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 222 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 222 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $2.4k → $4.9k → $8.2k → $3.2k → $2.6k → $628 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,903)
Top 5% $331k (exactly $330,569)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 345
Announced 222
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Visual Novel
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 22,278 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 222 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
As Dusk Falls older $29.99 3,707 90% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,335,188) INTERIOR/NIGHT
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
BURIED STARS older $39.99 2,117 83% 64k $2.5M (exactly $2,539,765) LINE Games Corporation
The Complex older $14.99 3,310 78% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,488,507) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Lit… (Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Little Jade Productions)
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
OXENFREE II: Lost Signals older $19.99 1,976 88% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,185,007) Night School Studio
Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure older $15.99 2,158 91% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) DigiTales Interactive
Class of '09: The Flip Side $9.99 3,356 57% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) SBN3
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
While We Wait Here $4.99 2,344 89% 70k $351k (exactly $350,897) Bad Vices Games
THRESHOLD $9.99 1,103 84% 33k $331k (exactly $330,569) Julien Eveillé
SAEKO: Giantess Dating Sim $14.99 715 87% 21k $322k (exactly $321,536) SAFE HAVN STUDIO
Sophie: The Girl From The Zone $14.99 547 87% 16k $246k (exactly $245,986) DavyCroquetteGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.