Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Thriller
Should I ship a Thriller Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Thriller
Of 222 developers who shipped a Thriller Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 327 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×534 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 327 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,427) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,268) |
| Top 5% | $254k (exactly $253,603) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 222 |
| Released games | 590 |
| Announced | 327 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Thriller
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 20,954 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 110 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 327 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Firework 2021 · $12M 
Detention 2017 · $3.7M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
| | Detention | older | $11.99 | 10,372 95% | 311k | $3.7M (exactly $3,730,808) | RedCandleGames |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | 1000xRESIST | older | $19.99 | 5,310 96% | 159k | $3.2M (exactly $3,184,407) | sunset visitor 斜陽過客 |
 | CHAOS;CHILD | older | $24.99 | 3,866 93% | 116k | $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | STEINS;GATE ELITE | older | $59.99 | 1,584 90% | 48k | $2.9M (exactly $2,850,725) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Zero Escape: Zero Time Dilemma | older | $19.99 | 4,669 81% | 140k | $2.8M (exactly $2,799,999) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home | older | $29.99 | 3,006 83% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) | TeamKRAMA |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 | $22.99 | 2,149 96% | 64k | $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) | Storytaco | |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | Class of '09: The Flip Side | $9.99 | 3,356 57% | 101k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) | SBN3 | |
 | SubZero | $9.99 | 2,719 92% | 82k | $815k (exactly $814,884) | Joy Media Limited | |
 | Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest | $24.99 | 922 89% | 28k | $691k (exactly $691,223) | Team Tetrapod | |
 | Sunken Engine | $14.99 | 814 80% | 24k | $366k (exactly $366,056) | Two Nomads Studio | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | Blood Money: Lethal Eden | $8.99 | 1,262 91% | 38k | $340k (exactly $340,361) | 碧火互娱 | |
 | SAEKO: Giantess Dating Sim | $14.99 | 715 87% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,536) | SAFE HAVN STUDIO |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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