Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller FPS?

FPS + Thriller

Of 188 developers who shipped a Thriller FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $87k, ×59 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 265 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 265 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $3.1k → $779 → $1.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $750 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 188
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $87,692)
Developers, 2 yr 188
Released games 405
Announced 265
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,461 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $87k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Choo-Choo Charles 2022 · $9.8M 港詭實錄ParanormalHK 2020 · $7.4M F.E.A.R. 2010 · $4.2M Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home 2021 · $2.7M Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo 2021 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
港詭實錄ParanormalHK older $12.99 18,874 89% 566k $7.4M (exactly $7,355,198) Ghostpie Studio
F.E.A.R. older $9.99 14,017 93% 421k $4.2M (exactly $4,200,895) Monolith Productions, Inc., Timegate
Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home older $29.99 3,006 83% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) TeamKRAMA
Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo older $29.99 2,718 95% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,445,385) ωstar, Seikei Production
Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 older $19.99 2,636 82% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,580,809) Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd.
Fobia - St. Dinfna Hotel older $29.99 1,558 83% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,401,733) Pulsatrix Studios
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
Gunman Contracts - Stand Alone · EA $24.99 1,180 78% 35k $885k (exactly $884,646) ANB_Seth
GET EVEN older $29.99 923 76% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) The Farm 51
Clawed $19.99 729 52% 22k $437k (exactly $437,181) Flatrock Games
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
The Backrooms 1998 - Found Footage Survival Horror Game $9.99 589 80% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Steelkrill Studio
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Project Songbird $14.99 195 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) FYRE Games, Conner Rush

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.