Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Thriller

Of 34 developers who shipped a Thriller Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $269 → $479 → $1.6k → $359 → $1.5k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,953)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $118,129)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 84
Announced 28
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Unmourned $24.99 258 79% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Codebros Studio
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
Stifled - Echolocation Horror Mystery older $19.99 78 70% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) Gattai Games
Forbidden Art older $14.99 96 91% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) AIXLAB
Liminal Shroud $12.99 91 89% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Everdeep Studios
Choose Wisely older $9.99 117 72% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) ID Card
Endless Suburbia older $4.99 91 64% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) Horrid Vision LLC
There Won't be Light · EA older $4.99 50 56% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) BarCoffee Studio
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
They See Us $3.99 60 85% 1.8k $7.2k (exactly $7,182) MalumGames
Cursed Halls $6.99 26 92% 780 $5.5k (exactly $5,452) Souls Alive Development
La Llorona Wants Your Soul $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Focka Games
Parnitha: Patient 66 $5.99 22 81% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,953) Nick Jordan Games
Veins of DARKNESS $2.99 40 87% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Langonier

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.