Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Crafting game?

Crafting + Thriller

Only 14 developers shipped a Thriller Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deathground, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×628 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 32 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $29k → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,180)
Top 5% $394k (exactly $394,387)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 43
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 1,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $990, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Someday You'll Return: Director's Cut older $19.99 270 84% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) CBE software
Erzurum older $0.99 4,358 42% 131k $129k (exactly $129,433) Proximity Games
Inferno Protocol · EA $13.49 144 79% 4.3k $58k (exactly $58,277) Tektonic Interactive
Titanic: The Experience older $3.99 301 57% 9.0k $36k (exactly $36,030) Interactive Gaming Studios
Dollhouse of Dead $6.99 140 75% 4.2k $29k (exactly $29,358) Renderise Games
YinYang Street Ultimate Edition older $8.99 85 74% 2.6k $23k (exactly $22,924) 彼云工作室
Dreadway $6.99 101 67% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) ZweiBier Indie
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
TOYCRAFTER $2.99 55 81% 1.7k $4.9k (exactly $4,934) NewGen
Dark Grid $2.99 11 90% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Moonlight Sand
Backrooms: The Yellow Dream $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Crow Games
Crystal of Death · EA $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Coderade Games
Flesh Farm · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) RABIDFROTH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.