Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller FMV?

FMV + Thriller

Of 29 developers who shipped a Thriller FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×35 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.8k. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 38 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 38 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $35k → $68k → $11k → $31k → $30k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Median $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $94,954)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 79
Announced 38
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Immersive Sim, RPG
Price point
$8.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.49.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,821 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
The Complex older $14.99 3,310 78% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,488,507) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Lit… (Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Little Jade Productions)
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Stories Untold older $9.99 4,357 86% 131k $1.3M (exactly $1,305,793) Screen Burn
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Telling Lies older $19.99 1,250 62% 38k $750k (exactly $749,625) Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee L… (Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee Limited)
The Bunker older $14.99 1,644 69% 49k $739k (exactly $739,307) Splendy Interactive, Wales Interactive
She Sees Red - Interactive Movie older $7.99 2,739 77% 82k $657k (exactly $656,538) Rhinotales
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Dead Take $14.99 752 87% 23k $338k (exactly $338,174) Surgent Studios
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Killed by Love 99 Times $12.99 533 95% 16k $208k (exactly $207,710) CineGame Interactive
The Joker's Game $11.99 486 82% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) All In Game Co., Limited
规则怪谈:盛崖小区 $10.99 288 71% 8.6k $95k (exactly $94,954) ZHUYUAN Co.,Ltd
Hacked: The Streamer $8.49 268 73% 8.0k $68k (exactly $68,260) Button Interactive, NAISU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.