Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Action game?

Action + Thriller

Of 575 developers who shipped a Thriller Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 861 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 861 games are announced against 310 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 861 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 575
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.4k → $1.9k → $2.2k → $971 → $1.5k → $1.1k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 575
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,924)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,722)
Developers, 2 yr 575
Released games 1,367
Announced 861
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Survival Horror
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 70,846 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 327 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 861 games are announced against 310 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
FATAL FRAME II: Crimson Butterfly REMAKE $49.99 2,663 87% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,993,701) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead $29.99 2,331 74% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) Stormind Games
The Complex: Expedition $14.99 2,620 89% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) pgWave
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
Gunman Contracts - Stand Alone · EA $24.99 1,180 78% 35k $885k (exactly $884,646) ANB_Seth
A.I.L.A $29.99 889 81% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) Pulsatrix Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.